Middle East

REUTERS/Ahmed Jadallah

Would Assad’s Fall Limit the Nuclear Menace in the Middle East?

As Bashar Assad looks more internationally isolated by the day — and far more vulnerable to Western economic sanctions than uber-bad boy Iran — it behooves us to think through what general advantages accrue with his eventual fall. To date, most of the thinking has focused on Iran’s loss of its right-hand proxy in transmitting [...]

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The Shah’s Ghost…

Those of you paying attention to international affairs a generation ago recall that Jimmy Carter’s decision to let the shah of Iran come to the U.S. for medical care created an anti-American firestorm back home in Iran. Has President Obama made the same mistake in letting Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh begin his journey to [...]

Winding Down the War: A Cynical Look Ahead

It appears that we are finally withdrawing from Iraq after eight years there. It is about time. We went in with the stated objective of finding and destroying nuclear weapons and Iraq’s other weapons of mass destruction. We also decided to topple the Saddam Hussein regime with the stated objective of bringing democracy (and oh-by-the-way [...]

Arab Spring With Same Impact as “Big-Bang Strategy”: Islam at War with Self — Not West

Nice piece in the NYT at the end of September pointing out that the primary impact of the Arab Spring is that, in giving people chances to rule themselves and not be subject to dictators, Islamic activists find themselves splintering from within: The debates are deep enough that many in the region believe that the [...]

Defining the Floor and Ceiling of U.S. Interventions Post-Bush

Nice NYT analytic piece (already cited by Mark Thompson) by Helene Cooper and Steven Lee Myers regarding the downstream legacy of the US involvement in Libya to date. Starts off by saying the Obama White House seeks no doctrine definition because it fears being pulled into inappropriate situations, but, of course, that’s what a doctrine [...]

An Explosive Glimpse of the Future of the Long War in Africa

The militant Islamic group of north Nigeria, known as Boko Harum, takes credit for the deadly car-bomb attack on a police station in the capital city of Abuja yesterday. You might not think of West Africa as a likely site for radical Muslim violence, but the map on the left, which I use in my [...]

Votes Show that for Hawkish GOP, the Times they are A-Changin’

It used to be easy to cover the Republican party when it came to national security issues. For the most part, members of the GOP could usually be counted on to come down on the hawkish side of a debate or vote. Toss in tens of thousands of casualties, ten years of war, billions of [...]

Lessons Learned in Iraq, Afghanistan Dictate That NATO Accept a Compromise in Libya

This from my Global Spin entry today: As NATO’s war in Libya entered its 100th day on Monday, an end to the conflict may be in sight — but not necessarily a decisive one. Military and diplomatic signs point increasingly towards some measure of compromise by both sides in shaping an outcome that neither the [...]

Obama and Palestine

Bandol, France Attached herewith is an important essay on the long term implications of the Netanyahu – Obama spectacle of late May. The author, William R. Polk, has kindly granted me permission to distribute it. Polk is one of the most knowledgeable observers of the Middle East as well as the general politics of insurrection.  [...]

The Winter Set Up: Counter-Insurgency in Kandahar

The fighting season in Afghanistan is in full swing, and the early reports indicate this one will be tough. After last year’s surge, American units, and the Afghan Army and police they’re partnered with, will be fighting to hold the areas they paid for dearly a year ago. One of the key provinces will be [...]