Getting to "Zero Threat"

Secretary Robert Gates explains the impossibility of reaching "zero threat" / DoD photo

Defense Secretary Robert Gates has wrapped up two days of testifying before armed services committee — perhaps his final appearance before both panels — and the House gave him a nice going-away present: it voted to kill the $3 billion second-engine line for the F-35 fighter. As the debate over the power plant showed, defense-budget cuts are going to become increasingly tougher to sell amid a struggling economy. Yet, the influx of freshmen GOP Republicans, many of whom voted to kill the engine, shows that the Republican Party will no longer be marching in lockstep for more defense spending.

That’s the good news. The bad news is this exchange from Wednesday’s hearing before the House Armed Services Committee. It’s between Gates and Rep. Duncan D. Hunter, a Republican who succeeded his father, Duncan L. Hunter, in representing California’s 52nd district near San Diego. The younger Hunter served two combat tours in Iraq and one in Afghanistan as a Marine field artillery officer before his election to Congress in 2008, so he’s got the bona fides to ask the question. It’s just that his notion is such a zany way to figure out how to defend the nation:

REP. DUNCAN HUNTER (R-CA): You talked about the defense budget, you talked about the total layouts and how this is the lowest point since the ’90s — since before World War II where we’re at the low part where we’re at now, where there is so little being spent on defense — and I would argue and ask your opinion of this. If you don’t give us a top line, if you don’t ask for what it would cost to erase all risk, literally — or as much risk as possible — then we have no baseline to cut defense from, or to add to, really, because the numbers that we’re using are limbo numbers, really, because if you were to fully fund defense — this is my question.

If you were to fully fund defense and take away a hundred percent as best as you could, a hundred percent of risk using your own threat assessment tools and analysis, what would that funding be? What would you ask for?

SEC. GATES: I have only half-jokingly said in meetings in the department that if we had a trillion-dollar budget, I would still have unfunded requirements.

REP. HUNTER: Yeah, that’s right.

SEC. GATES: The services would still be able to come up with a list of things that they really need.

I think that the budget that we’ve provided at $553 billion for FY ’12 mitigates risk to the extent that I think is reasonably possible. And I think that we have — we are investing in new capabilities — the $70 billion that the services are going to be able to invest from their savings in new capabilities or in added numbers I think helped mitigate that risk.

You can never reach a point — just as there is no such thing as perfect security, there is no such thing as eliminating risk.

REP. HUNTER: …If you got to that highest point that you could where you started getting diminished rate of return, what would that number be, roughly?

SEC. GATES: I think that we are at a point with the 553 (billion dollars) where we can do that.

REP. HUNTER: Okay. So fully funding defense and every requirement is at 553 (billion dollars)?

SEC. GATES: We will never fund every request.

REP. HUNTER: But if you did, sir, what I’m asking is, what’s that number, roughly?

SEC. GATES: I have no idea how much –

REP. HUNTER: You haven’t thought about what it would cost to really satisfy the requirements of all the different services?

SEC. GATES: Nobody lives in that — nobody lives in that world.

REP. HUNTER: No, but what you’re supposed to do is tell us how do we — how get to zero threat, and Congress then decides what to fund.

SEC. GATES: And I’m telling you you are never going to get to zero threat.

REP. HUNTER: We can try.

Related Topics: bob gates, defense spending, duncan hunter, National Security
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  • http://www.stevebeste.com Steve Beste

    “The younger Hunter served two combat tours in Iraq and one in Afghanistan as a Marine field artillery officer before his election to Congress in 2008, so he’s got the bona fides to ask the question.”

    I infer from the above that you think that people who haven’t served in the military lack the “bona fides” to question the defense budget. Do you intend that?

    You might also comment on the absurdity of getting to ‘zero threat’ other than implying it.

  • gysgt213

    This is seriously the exchange you choose to highlight? It like something from the Onion.

  • Cookie Puss

    I think we’re one step closer to “zero threat” by getting Duncan away from the artillery and putting him behind a desk.

  • shepherdwong

    SEC GATES: I’m trying to tell you, it’s a moving target you idiot.

  • apr2563

    Remember, he is genetically related to Duncan Hunter Sr.

  • afguy

    Which does explain a LOT…

  • afguy

    Cooooookkkkiiiieeeee!
    .
    Nice to see you.

  • http://phd9.blogspot.com Paul Dirks

    Of course one of the dangers that comes with holding zero-threat as a goal is, not only can you spend infinite sums but you can also take zero chances when choosing who to regard as enemies. Call it the Dick Cheney syndrome. It isn’t a good source of guidance in international affais.

  • formerlyjames

    ZERO THREAT!!!!!

    Congressman Hunter, as long a the likes of you are around, it is an impossibility. Nada. We cannot achieve zero beyond you.

  • http://www.inworldstudios.com jayackroyd

    Zero threat?
    .
    We’re there.
    .
    We’ve been there since the Wall fell.
    .
    All else is corruption.

  • http://www.inworldstudios.com jayackroyd

    As the debate over the power plant showed, defense-budget cuts are going to become increasingly tougher to sell amid a struggling economy.
    .
    Channeling atrios:
    .
    WTF? If you want to fix a struggling economy SUPERTRAIN!
    .
    Srsly, defense spending is the worst form of stimulus. For the same reasons that it’s great for graft.

  • Matt

    This exchange may seem innocuous to most folks, but it is deeply frightening in that this is the basic ideology of the party holding the purse strings in Congress and that is trying to put a president in the White House in 2012.

    So I supposed “zero threat” would mean nuking China, Russia and Iran simultaneously, not to mention a scorched-earth war to kill Osama and Qaeda. And we’re supposed to fund all of that? Seriously?
    http://www.sunstateactivist.org

  • gysgt213

    “So I supposed “zero threat” would mean nuking China, Russia and Iran simultaneously, not to mention a scorched-earth war to kill Osama and Qaeda. And we’re supposed to fund all of that?”
    .
    At this point funding would be least of our problems, because a government that ran out of enemies would create one. That one could very well be its own citizens

  • Friar Tuck

    Think of it as inventory reduction. We just use all the stuff we already own, before the plutonium triggers go bad.
    .
    What’s the point of being able to destroy the world anyway, if you never actually destroy the world? It’s just money down the drain.
    .
    Just drink the Kool-aid. It’ll all make perfect sense then.

  • Friar Tuck

    I just used “just” in three straight paragraphs.

  • Friar Tuck

    . . . and punched myself out of a thread. Good night.

  • mikew67

    Nowhere to be found in all the talk of government spending; Defense. Now over $750 billion per year. No problem?

    Lift up the rock to find more slush funds, overspending and fraud, than even in Medicare.

    Balkingpoints / www

  • artraveler

    We already spend more than the total spent by all of the rest of the world and Duncan thinks it might not be enough? What a nut!

  • troubador222

    And to paraphrase something I heard recently, we’re spending all this money to fight a war against a handful of men who hide in caves.

  • pintortwo

    SEC. GATES: I have only half-jokingly said in meetings in the department that if we had a trillion-dollar budget, I would still have unfunded requirements.
    .
    Our Trillion Dollar Defense (link)
    .
    The more accurate total for describing what Obama is asking Congress to let him spend in FY11 on “the common defense” is more than $1 trillion. I arrived at about $1,048,800,000,000 as the real total cost of providing for the common defense by adding up these figures in Obama’s new budget: $548.9 billion in the Pentagon’s discretionary budget; $4.2 billion in obligations it has to pay; $159.1 billion for the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan; $18.8 billion the Energy Department is expected to spend this coming budget year on nuclear weaponry; $7.6 billion on miscellaneous accounts related to the common defense. This comes out to about $738.6 billion for national defense but leaves out many of the other billions slated to be spent on the common defense.
    .
    The seldom-discussed amounts in Obama’s budget but definitely linked to providing for the common defense include $43.6 billion for the Homeland Security Department; $122 billion for the Veterans Affairs Department; $65.3 billion for defense-related international affairs; $25.9 billion contributed by the Treasury Department for defense needs; $53.4 billion for interest on the Pentagon’s Healthcare fund and defense portion of the national debt.

  • Cliff

    In all sincerity, Thompson, thanks for highlighting this exchange.
    .
    Hunter’s insistence on “zero threat” is staggering.
    .
    Especially in the face of constant fearmongering about the deficit.

  • pintortwo

    Our defense expenditure is self-perpetuating. If we build bases where they are despised, arm oppressive regimes, prop illegitimate govts, kill people that don’t threaten us, ignore our own and international law, sanction brutality and allow the profiteers of such to directly influence our legislature… we’ll always have enemies.
    .
    There is no “top line”. The answer, Mr Hunter, is always “more”.

  • liberalmeltdown

    Lets transfer: so no amount of money will make us perfectly safe.
    .
    In the same turn, no amount of money will make us a perfect utopia.
    .
    So, liberals should stop asking how much more can we milk from the cow. The cow is dry. More money isn’t going to get you to nirvana. Stop being little two year old children.

  • pintortwo

    no amount of money will make us perfectly safe.
    .
    no amount of money will make us a perfect utopia.
    .
    The cow is dry.

    .
    Therefore, you must believe that neither pursuit should be funded.

  • liberalmeltdown

    That’s correct. There is a difference in funding of social programs vs. defense programs: A “rich” individual can pay for most if not all of the defense budget, but you receive the same protection from the military while paying nothing.
    .
    Conversely a “rich” individual can fund most if not all of your social programs, while he receives nothing in return (except your scorn) and you get all the benefits.

  • Cliff

    Holy sh*t. Cookie Puss and Friar Tuck in the same thread?
    .
    Did I travel back in time to 2008?

  • apr2563

    A rich person gets no benefit from assisting a poor citizen to rise from poverty? A rich person gets no benefit from seeing a child fed? A rich person gets no benefit from making sure a pregnant woman gets good prenatal care? A rich person gets no benefit from assisting a young man or woman attend college? A rich person gets no benefit from taking care of a wounded veteran and his family?
    .
    If you can’t see the benefits for society or the rich person, you are really a lost soul.

  • http://phd9.blogspot.com Paul Dirks

    Apparently when you live in a gated community and work in a locked down office you can pretend to be unaffected by other people’s suffering. Except of course for all the fences………..

  • michaelfury
  • hippooath

    Liberalmentdown,
    .
    The benefit to the rich got from making sure that we had the broadest and most well off middle class is that they made billions. Their great ideas wouldn’t be able to sell if poor people didn’t lift themselves up into the middle class. Pushing them down into poverty only assures that rich people only remain rich and not filthy rich.
    .
    That’s so basic that you have to fail basic history 101 in order to miss that.
    .
    On the other hand more Empires and more wealth have been lost in the endless wars that trash a nations resources. Again, history 101 – massive amount of arms don’t protect – they destroy. A well educated, well fed people means great workers and a wider pool of talents that can come up with future technologies that move a country forward.

  • http://forgottenlord.livejournal.com forgottenlord

    Ok, I’m going to say Hitler. I want everyone to understand, when I say Hitler, I do not want anyone to think I’m calling anyone a Nazi, but rather trying to an emotional neutral analysis of a historical fact.
    .
    Alright, Nazi Germany in the mid-30s asked it’s Generals what they needed to build and gave them every dollar they could want. In a timeframe of a single year, Hitler nearly collapsed his economic output into total military output. In fact, the argument has been made that this actually necessitated his takeovers of Austria, Czechoslovakia, Poland, France, and the Soviet Union as he needed to plunder their treasuries to continue his war efforts. A similar argument has been made about Napoleon.
    .
    My point is this: if you ask the military to keep thinking of creating new ways to protect, they will infinitely think of new risks and new problems to solve and new ways to spend money – and you are more likely to collapse the economy than reach the end of the wish list.
    .
    BTW: this is true about *every* field that has ever existed.

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