Pentagon In The Fiscal Crosshairs

The “boom” you just heard coming from the Pentagon isn’t a test of the newest nuclear cannon, but the starting pistol in the race to figure out where — and how deeply — to cut the U.S. military budget. It’s a strange fight to be having as the U.S. military wraps up one war and remains engaged in a second. But with defense spending basically doubling since 9/11 — and now topping the Cold War average — it’s one of the few fat targets left as lawmakers confront economically-stressed constituents demanding they do something about the nation’s soaring deficit. The $700 billion the nation pumps into the Pentagon every year accounts for about half of the nation’s discretionary spending.

Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments

The military-industrial complex fears that a widening split in Republican ranks is going to depress defense spending. “A defense budget in decline portends an America in decline,” Rep. Howard “Buck” McKeon, the California Republican expected to be chairman of the armed services committee, said Tuesday. “It will undermine our ability to project power, strengthen our adversaries and weaken our alliances.” But Senator John McCain, Republican of Arizona who served on the Senate Armed Services Committee, said the same day that lawmaker earmarks and over-priced weapons are ripe for trimming. “There’s no doubt that this new group of Republicans have come in with a commitment that would take a weed ax to spending,” McCain said. “I’m not sure that we could say that everything in defense is sacrosanct while the rest of these cuts in education and social programs, etc., are taking place.”

Even centrist scholars of military spending are now suggesting it may be time to take a scalpel, if not a cleaver, to U.S. military spending. “Weighed against the dangers of the fiscal overstretch and economic decline now facing the country, the case for pursuing about a 10 percent reduction in the core defense budget is strong enough to warrant serious consideration in the years ahead,” Michael O’Hanlon of the Brookings Institution wrote Wednesday in the Washington Times. “In debating the idea, we should avoid the implication that there are easy answers or easy economies to achieve, and link possible budget reductions to strategic choices in the nation’s foreign policy.” He argues that shrinking the Army and Marine Corps by about 15 percent, and killing less-needed weapons like the F-35 fighter, the Littoral Combat Ship, the V-22 tilt-rotor aircraft and the Marines’ Expeditionary Fighting Vehicle, make sense.

Defense Secretary Robert Gates knew the gusher was shutting down earlier this year when he called on the military to find $100 billion in savings. His goal: strip that much Pentagon fat and apply it to the muscle to ensure the military can stick to its target of spending 1 percent more than inflation each year. But no sooner had he declared his $100 billion goal than the leaders of President Obama’s National Commission on Fiscal Responsibility and Reform agreed that sum should be cut — and that the resulting savings be returned to the Treasury to reduce the deficit, and not be poured back into military spending. They want to freeze military pay for three years, cut procurement by 15 percent, reduce overseas basing personnel by a third, double Gates’ promise to cut contractors by 10 percent, cut research funding by 10 percent, and reduce out-of-control spending on military health care. On Wednesday, a second group of Washington budget greybeards called for a five-year freeze on Pentagon spending, which would save an estimated $431 billion between 2012 and 2016.

The proposals generated a predictable response. “The truth of the matter is when it comes to the deficit, the Department of Defense is not the problem,” Gates said Tuesday of the commission’s recommendations. “I think in terms of the specifics they came up with, that is math not strategy.” The defense industry recoiled from the very notion. “The highest constitutional responsibility of the federal government is to protect the American people from foreign aggression,” said Marion Blakey, head of the Aerospace Industries Association, a major defense trade group. “The co-chair recommendations in the defense arena, if implemented, would exacerbate the coming shortage of engineers and undercut the capability of the nation’s defense industrial base to design, build and support complex cutting-edge defense systems.”

Of course, it’s those cutting-edge defense systems — to be used against, well, just you wait — that have driven the price of defending this nation into the stratosphere. Check out this price list, released Monday, of all the weapons you’re buying: the bottom line is a cool $1.7 trillion. The very same day, the Pentagon’s top weapons-buyer ordered a new policy to “mandate affordability as a requirement.” Undersecretary of defense for acquisition Ashton Carter’s memo says that cost overruns should be split 50-50 between the government and contractor, and canceled if they rise more than 120 percent above the estimated cost. “You should seek to reduce non-productive processes and bureaucracy in your acquisition process,” he said. Now he tells them.

Related Topics: defense spending, National Security
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  • http://phd9.blogspot.com Paul Dirks

    It’s a strange fight to be having as the U.S. military wraps up one war and remains engaged in a second.

    Surely you know as well as anyone that the weapon systems that we sink the most money into and the ones we need to fight in theaters such as Iraq and Afghanistan are horribly mismatched. The entire US strategy for years has been overwhelming air power. Precisely what we DON’T need when trying to pick terrorists out from a crowd.

  • Paul-no not that one

    Don’t be worried “Buck”, McCain doesn’t have a reputation for holding firm to his positions. You can get him on board.

  • michaelfury
  • afguy

    The philosophy has been not to try to pick them out. Just blow away the “crowd” (and anyone else in the area) to get the target, issue a release expressing regrets about the innocent loss of life (or blame the target for using the crowd as a shield).
    .
    War has become too much of a video game to too many. Last night, one of my HS-aged brought me his laptop to watch a video, to ask if I thought it was real. At first, I thought it was infrared footage of a police surveillance, up until a voice told someone to “take them out” and the individuals disappeared in a burst of machine gun fire.
    .
    At that point, I looked closer at the URL and found that the word “iraq” was in the URL. SOMEONE is posting live combat footage out where it can be watched.
    .
    The Romans would have been so proud – watching your fellow man be killed as a spectator sport. If your kids get tired of playing “Mortal Kombat” on their XBoxes, they can go online and watch the real thing. All from the comfort of their living rooms.

  • pintortwo

    It’s a strange fight to be having as the U.S. military wraps up one war and remains engaged in a second.
    .
    Good post, but this quote is irksome to me. We haven’t wrapped up one war to focus on a second. They are part of the same operation. Neocons at the PNAC described what would become our military’s goal in their 2000 publication Rebuilding Americas Defenses: a “core mission” for the military is to “perform the ‘constabulary’ duties associated with shaping the security environment in critical regions“. -link
    .
    Sec Def Rumsfeld put the policy in motion in ’05 with the The National Defense Strategy:
    .
    To strengthen our capability for prompt global action and our flexibility to employ military forces where needed, we require the capacity to move swiftly into and through strategic pivot points and remote locations. The new global posture-using main operating bases (MOB), forward operating sites (FOS), and a diverse array of more austere cooperative security locations (CSL)- will support such needs… Support materiel and combat capabilities should be positioned in critical regions and along key transportation routes to enable worldwide deployment.
    .
    That is why we invaded Iraq. That is why we remained in Afghanistan after routing al Qaeda. If memory serves, we’ve spent in the neiborhood of $72 billion on constructing these bases– nothing is wrapped up. The next 50+ years will be spent engaging and wrapping up wars in this region.
    .
    The Bush administration started the neoconservative plan and Obama pledged to “finish the job”. (Although technically, the job will last decades after he’s gone.) This is the “Long War”.

  • pintortwo

    ..link to the The National Defense Strategy of the US:
    .
    http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/library/policy/dod/nds-usa_mar2005_iiib.htm

  • pintortwo

    The ‘Long War’ Quagmire
    (link)

    “Without public debate and without congressional hearings, a segment of the Pentagon and fellow travelers have embraced a doctrine known as the Long War, which projects an “arc of instability” caused by insurgent groups from Europe to South Asia that will last between 50 and 80 years. According to one of its architects, Iraq, Afghanistan and Pakistan are just “small wars in the midst of a big one.”
    .
    Consider the audacity of such an idea. An 80-year undeclared war would entangle 20 future presidential terms stretching far into the future of voters not yet born.”

  • 11charlie

    Dumping the F-35 might be a problem, because there are a number of countries that are involved in the program. There is also considerable interest in the aircraft by such countries as Singapore and South Korea.
    .
    Chances are the US will cut down on the number of aircraft purchased, but I don’t see the DoD cutting the program outright.

  • michaelfury

    “with defense spending basically doubling since 9/11″

    Yes, crazy how 19 little guys with boxcutters can make that happen, isn’t it? And still no Osama.

    Halve it and halve it again.

    http://michaelfury.wordpress.com/2010/11/16/critical-mass/

  • http://businessnbeyond.wordpress.com businessnbeyond

    Health care is such a big driver of the long term deficit problem that it is fair to say that with health care fixed, the rest is easy, and without health care fixed, the problem is impossible.

    I am a big fan of block grants to the states for both Medicare and Medicaid, with substantial liberty to allow states to reign in costs (or raise taxes) as they choose. I’m not convinced that there is a readily adoptable model out there suitable for Americans, and the 50 states have always been laboratory for the best of our social programs. The political difficulties experienced by Obamacare are much lessened when each state can choose its own way (Massachusetts can nationalize medicine, Texas can send everyone a check and tell them to take care of themselves, and the other 48 will try something in between). The US is too big, and opinion is too diverse, for one solution to fit all. Note that in Canada health care is a provincial responsibility, with the feds paying about half in a redistributionist manner.

    I’m all for tax reform, eliminating deductions (health care and mortgages are the big targets, and both should go), and taxing consumption, but everyone, especially the Republicans, should remain focused on the voter anger at the rich elite. Inequality in the US is at gilded age levels (1880s-1890s), and the 90% who are seeing their standard of living stagnate are increasingly angry at the 1% who are making out like bandits. If the underlying global economics that are driving this inequality are hard to combat (and they are), there is a political need at this point in history to soak the rich. Some form of new wealth tax or rich-persons income tax is necessary to assuage the anger of the populace or we’ll see growing calls for socialism and wealth confiscation, which would hurt everyone. Tax reform must include a strong dose of wealth taxes to be in any way palatable.

    Finally, although the actual dollars and cents impact is less than some seem to think, the US has to get out of the global policeman business. Maintain the ability to strike at our enemies throughout the world, but eliminate the ability to occupy countries. It doesn’t work, and its too expensive. By greatly cutting back on the army and marines, pulling them back to baracks in the US, the US can maintain a ‘force de frappe’ through the Navy and Air Force. If an invasion is required somewhere, form an alliance or ally with the local rebels. No more occupations. The US has to get out of the global hegemon habit.
    http://www.businessnbeyond.com/

  • http://patmcmac.wordpress.com patmcmac

    What survey/hard data can you site to verify that “economically-stressed constituents (are) demanding they do something about the nation’s soaring deficit”?

    While this view is certainly “conventional wisdom”, I have seen no data that it is anything beyond anecdotal, coming from self-servers.

    PMac
    Boston

  • samwilsun

    Hi Mark, it’s Sam from Woodfield.

    I think that one strategic advantage unfairly exploited by people who want to keep military spending high is how opaque the subject is. Outsiders (most people) who have no problem weighing in on an equally complex subject like economics or health care are, for many reasons, timid to criticize defense spending. There is an unvirtuous cycle where Americans’ admirable desire to support our service members becomes a justification for dubious wars and a cover for profiteering.

    What your graph fails to show is that, while US defense spending rebounded from it’s pre-9/11 low point, total world defense spending stayed almost flat. What that means is that while the US was remilitarizing it’s economy on a significant scale, the rest of the world was actually cutting back. History is giving the United States a rare opportunity not often granted to superpowers in decline, a chance to retrench without losing much useful territory. We should take that opportunity and reduce our overseas commitments, trim weapons systems, jetison many contractors, and reduce overall troop levels (although I certainly think military salaries should go up and soldiers should be treated more like professionals).

    Please don’t play into this circular logic of “we’re at war so we can’t cut the military”. The business of the military is war, and it’s making a killing at the expense of humanitarian foreign aid, America’s foreign relations, fiscal sanity, and the peaceful economy at large.

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